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Geomagnetic storm forecast - 6th November 2025

What Has Happened?



 

We are expecting an increase in geomagnetic activity over the next few days due to increased solar activity and coronal hole effects.

Solar activity has been high over the last few days with several solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched from the Sun. Three of these CMEs have an Earth-directed component:

  • A CME left the Sun at approximately 22:53 UT on 4th November.
    This was associated with a M1.7 solar flare from active region 14272.

  • A full-halo CME left the Sun at approximately 10:53 UT on 5th November.
    This was associated with a M7.4 solar flare from active region 14274.

  • A full-halo CME left the Sun at approximately 22:23 UT on 5th November.
    This was associated with a M8.6 solar flare from active region 14274.

    • Additionally, a high-speed solar wind stream from a large Earth-facing coronal hole is expected to disturb Earth's magnetosphere over the next few days. A combination of this high-speed solar wind and the arrival of one, or more, CME is likely to significantly enhance geomagnetic activity and reach STORM levels.

    The solar wind has already been disturbed due to an earlier CME arrival overnight and the onset of the high-speed solar wind from the coronal hole. Further CME arrivals are predicted over the 7th-8th November.

    The active regions which produced these CMEs are also rotating around into a more Earth-facing position. Any further activity these regions produce in the coming days has the possibility of being Earth-directed and contributing to further enhancements in geomagnetic activity.

    Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora from tonight and over the next couple of days. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.

     

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    Glossary

    BGS
    The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

    CME or Coronal Mass Ejection
    The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

    Solar Flare
    Energy released by the explosive reorganisation of magnetic fields within the Sun's atmosphere.

    Coronal Hole
    A region in the Sun’s outer atmosphere (corona) where hot material can flow unrestrained by its magnetic fields out into space.

    Solar Wind
    The ever-present expansion of the Sun’s hot outer atmosphere into the solar system, which carries space weather within it.

    CIR or Co-rotating Interactive Region
    A compression region ahead of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). They form due to the interaction of slower, ambient solar wind ahead of the higher-speed stream. They usually result in particle density enhancement and interplanetary magnetic field strength increases and can cause geomagnetic storms when reaching Earth.

    High Speed Stream
    A fast moving stream of solar wind, responsible for magnetic storms.

    Solar Flare
    Energy released by the explosive reorganisation of magnetic fields within the Sun's atmosphere.

    Sunspot/Active Region
    A region of intense magnetic field in the Sun's visible outer atmosphere often associated with flares and CMEs.